Thursday, 23 June 2022

Aggregating for accuracy: another accuracy argument for linear pooling

 A PDF of this blogpost is available here.

I don't have an estimate for how long it will be before the Greenland ice sheet collapses, and I don't have an estimate for how long it will be before the average temperature at Earth's surface rises more than 3C above pre-industrial levels. But I know a bunch of people who do have such estimates, and I might hope that learning theirs might help me set mine. Unfortunately, each of these people has a different estimate for each of these two quantities. What should I do? Should I pick one of them at random and adopt their estimates as mine? Or should I pick some compromise between them? If the latter, which compromise?

Cat inaccurately estimates width of step